Stoffo's Baseball Streak System, Part 3
by Tony Stoffo
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Stoffo's Baseball Streak System Part 1
by Tony Stoffo
The Goal
The simple objective is to cash in on good teams' winning streaks and poor teams' losing streaks by riding them to 3 consecutive winning bets as many times as possible during a season.
The Series
50-50-25.
The Formula
The Formula for setting the Series Amounts in The Baseball Streaks System is
a, a, 1/2a.
In the Series above, a = 50 or $50. If you find this too low, try a larger value of a, for example 100. If you pick $100 for the starting bet, your Series would be calculated as 100, 100, .5 x 100 = 50, or 100-100-50.
For our purposes here, however, we will stick with the original Series Amounts for examples.
As a guide to selecting which Series to play, you can add up the 3 Series Amounts in the Series you're considering and make sure the combined total doesn't represent more than 25% of your Personal Betting Bankroll.
The Rules
1) To start this Series, wait until your selected "winning" team wins a game and then make a moneyline wager in the amount necessary to earn you the predetermined Series Amount of $50 (or an Actual Wager Amount) on its next game.
2) If your team wins, add your winnings to your Bankroll and make another bet on its next game, again in an amount enough to win the Series Amount of $50.
3) If you lose your first wager, cut your losses and start over the Series, going back to Rule 1, waiting for another Signal Result.
4) Continue betting as your team wins (or loses, if you're betting on a "loser"), setting your Actual Wager Amounts according to the moneyline, until you win 3 wagers in a row (and your team wins 4 games in a row overall). Add your profits to your Bankroll and start over on a new Series.
5) Be sure to track all your bets carefully using the handy Chart at the end of this chapter.
6) Every month or so, evaluate your Personal Betting Bankroll, and increase your 4 Betting Blocks if you feel comfortable doing so.
The Proof
To show you just how well The Baseball Streaks System works, I'm going to use the worst possible example, the Yankees. As you'll see below by the moneyline odds on each game, the bookmakers are wise to bettors trying to make it rich on baseball's "best" team, so you routinely have to lay $2 or more to win $1.
Still, using these actual moneyline odds and results from the first third of the 2002 Major League Baseball season, you'll get a comprehensive idea of not only how to play the System but how extraordinarily well it works, even when the odds are stacked against you and your team.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Series Profit $
1 -1.85 - lose 0-1 - -
2 -1.75 - win 1-0 - -
3 -2.20 110 50 win 2-0 +50 +50
4 -2.40 120 50 win 3-0 +50 +100
5 -2.30 54 25 win 4-0 +25 +125
You start the season waiting for your Signal Result, a win by the Yankees. It comes in Game 2, so you bet starting with the next game, wagering $110 to win $50. The bet pays off and you ride the Yankees' winning streak for 2 more games, pocketing $125 in profit, since your Series ends when you win 3 bets in a row. Note that you must lay a combined $284 to win a total of $125, which is why I suggest you pick a team other than the current MLB "dynasty."
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
6 -2.80 - - win 5-0 - +125
7 -1.70 85 50 win 6-0 +50 +175
8 -1.70 85 50 win 7-0 +50 +225
9 -1.90 47 25 lose 0-1 -47 +178
The very next game, the Yankees' sixth of the season, is a victory and therefore a Signal Result for you. So you wager $85 to win $50 on Game 7 and do the same on Game 8. Note that Game 9 ends your Series either way, since you will either get your goal of 3 consecutive wins or your first loss. As it turns out, you lose $47 trying to win $25, and start all over again. You are up $178 overall after a 5-1 record.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
10 -1.90 - - lose 0-2 - +178
11 -1.40 - - lose 0-3 - +178
12 +140 - - lose 0-4 - +178
13 -1.90 - - win 1-0 - +178
14 -1.55 77 50 lose 0-1 -77 +101
See the amazing thing that happens during Games 10-12? You sit out while the Yankees go on literally their longest losing streak of the entire 2002 season. Then you get a Signal Result when they win Game 13, and wager on Game 14. Unfortunately, it's a loss.
Still, you watch from the sidelines, risking none of your Bankroll, as the Yankees lose. Sheer beauty.
You stand at $101 with a 5-2 record, while the Yankees are 8-6. Had you bet on every game, you'd be at -$103, a loss of $204 after the first 2 weeks of the season.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
15 -2.50 - - lose 0-2 - +101
16 -2.40 - - win 1-0 - +101
17 -2.40 120 50 win 2-0 +50 $151
18 -2.60 130 50 win 3-0 +50 $201
19 -1.50 37 25 lose 0-1 -37 $164
Did you wonder why the Series Amounts in this Series actually decrease after you get 2 wins in a row? I've chosen to hedge my bets in this System, because statistics show that even great teams going for their fourth win in a row win less than half the time, and you don't want to give back all your profits from your first 2 wins.
So far, it works out well, since the Yankees are now 1-2 when going for 4 consecutive wins, meaning you are 1-2 when going for 3 consecutive wins (since you sit out the first win waiting for your Signal Result). Still, you pick up $63 more in total profit, adding a total of $164 to your Bankroll with a 7-3 record.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
20 -2.30 - - win 1-0 - $164
21 +1.10 47 50 win 2-0 +50 $214
22 -1.35 67 50 win 3-0 +50 $264
23 -1.30 32 25 lose 0-1 -32 $232
Again, the Yankees lose going for an elusive 4 wins in a row, but you still pick up another $68, giving you $232 with a 9-4 record. Notice that, for a change, the Yankees are getting decent odds.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
24 -1.25 - - win 1-0 - $232
25 +1.35 37 50 lose 0-1 -37 $195
As you see, your Series can last just 1 bet if your team follows up a win with an immediate loss. You drop $37 to give you $195 with a 9-5 record.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
26 +1.10 - - win 1-0 - $195
27 -1.50 75 50 win 2-0 +50 $245
28 -2.00 100 50 lose 0-1 -100 $145
Ouch. See why you want to stay away from such bad odds? To merely break even, you've got to win 2 games for every 1 loss when the moneyline is -2.00. That means your team can go .667 for the year, an amazing feat, and you make nothing if their moneyline odds are set at -2.00 every game. In this case, you go 1-1 yet drop $50, giving you $145 in profit with a 10-6 record.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
29 -1.80 - - win 1-0 - $145
30 -1.20 60 50 lose 0-1 -60 $85
When choosing a team to bet on in this System, try to stay away from teams that "back and forth it" like the Yankees do on this stretch. Like the name says, in The Baseball Streaks System, you're looking for "streaky" teams, both good and bad. This loss costs you $60, which depletes your profits to $85 with a 10-7 overall record.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
31 -1.40 - - lose 0-2 - $85
32 -1.40 - - lose 0-3 - $85
33 -2.20 - - win 1-0 - $85
34 -2.30 115 50 win 2-0 +50 $135
35 -2.20 110 50 win 3-0 +50 $185
36 -1.20 30 25 win 4-0 +25 $210
Again, you achieve your goal of 3 consecutive wins, though the odds on Games 34 and 35 are ridiculously high, so you may want to consider playing the run-line in situations like these, betting that your team will win by at least 2 runs. However, you add $125 to your profits, putting you up $210 with a 13-7 record.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
37 -1.20 - - win 5-0 - $210
38 -1.65 41 50 win 6-0 +50 $260
39 -3.20 160 50 win 7-0 +50 $310
40 -2.70 67 25 lose 0-1 -67 $243
Note that you are forced to sit out 1 game of the Yankees' 7-game overall win streak while waiting for your Signal Result, yet you still profit handsomely from it, adding another $33 to give you a $243 profit with a 15-8 record.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
41 -2.80 - - win 1-0 - $243
42 -2.20 110 50 win 2-0 +50 $293
43 -1.85 93 50 win 3-0 +50 $343
44 -2.60 65 25 win 4-0 +25 $368
The Yankees pay off for you again, achieving your goal of 3 consecutive wins for the third time in the first 44 games of the season. You add $125 more to your profits, giving you $368 with an 18-8 record.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
45 -2.00 - - win 5-0 - $368
46 -2.40 120 50 win 6-0 +50 $418
47 -1.40 70 50 lose 0-1 -70 $348
It can be frustrating in situations like these to sit out a game while your team continues to win, but the numbers show it pays off in the long run. Consider that by betting on the A's in 2002, their 20-game win streak alone brings you 5 complete Series' goals and a profit of $875, even though you sit out 5 games of their amazing run.
Here, you go 1-1 and drop $20, but you are still up $348 with a 19-9 record.
Game Line Bet To Win Result Streak Profit $ Net Profit $
48 +2.00 - - lose 0-2 - $348
49 -1.35 - - lose 0-3 - $348
50 +1.35 - - win 1-0 - $348
51 -1.60 80 50 win 2-0 +50 $398
52 +1.15 44 50 win 3-0 +50 $448
53 -1.25 31 25 win 4-0 +25 $473
The Yankees finish the first third of the season by bringing you your fourth completed 3-game Series win, pushing your profits to $473 and your record to a remarkable 22-9 (for a .710 winning percentage). Meanwhile, overall the Yankees are 35-18 (for a .660 winning percentage), proving the System's power to help you "sit out" their losing streaks.
We'll stop following the team here, since the oddsmakers set the moneyline of a mind-blowing 65 of the Yankees' final 114 games (or 57%) at -2.00 or higher, and there's no money in it for you as a savvy bettor.
A good rule of thumb is that you want to bet on a team that wins at a 600 or better clip yet whose moneyline doesn't go over -.200 more than 1 in every 5 games (or 20% of the time). For instance, the Braves and A's of 2002 both fall into this category, proving to be a much better value than the Yankees.
Seek out the opposite when betting against "losers." For instance, the Brewers of 2002, who finished at a .346 winning percentage, faced +2.00 or worse moneyline odds in only 28 of 162 games (or 17%) and went on no fewer than 18 losing streaks of 3 games or more, making them a smart team to pick against all year long.
Continued in Part 3
Tony Stoffo's website is: www.learnhowtobet.com
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