Craps: Regression Betting
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Frank Scoblete

Is regression betting a good way to wager? Actually, yes, it is, well, kind of.
A typical regression play, called the $110 one-hit-and-down, would go like this:

The shooter has established his point. You place $110 inside; that's $25 on the 5 and 9, $30 on the 6 and 8. The shooter has 18 ways to hit these four numbers. If he does, the payoff is $35 on the first hit. Once that hit takes place, you lower your bet to $22 across, securing a profit of $13. Now, the rest of this shooter's roll is pure profit.

The thinking here is that the player has a 50-percent chance of winning this wager on any given roll as there are 36 possible combinations of which the 'one-hit-and-down' bettor has 18 of them favoring him. How long would you leave your $110 at risk? Some players would leave it up until it hits or loses to the 7. Others will give themselves a few shots at it before pulling it back.

In a random game of craps, where the 7 is always a 1 in 6 probability, the house edge is a fixed mark, in the case of placing the 'inside numbers' of 5, 6, 8, and 9, that mark is about 2.6 percent. What that means is that the player making the 'inside numbers' bet will lose 2.6 percent of all the money he wagers - in the long run. If on one bet, he has $110 at risk and on other bets, he only has $22 at risk; the house edge is working on some average amount between the two extremes.

Of course, when regression betting is working to perfection and an inside number is hit early and often on shooter after shooter; it is a guaranteed one-roll win per shooter.
But when the 7 shows before an inside number, the loss is brutal. Once you've lost the $110, if you continue to regress on future shooters as you planned it will take approximately 10 shooters in a row to get past that first hit or one shooter to have a monster roll as you collect on your $22 across in $7 increments. Yeow!

How often will you be wiped off the board before an inside number can be hit?
You'll win 18 times on your numbers, lose six times on that abominable 7. That means you'll win 3 times for a win of $35 + $35 +$35 = $105; then you'll lose once for a loss of $110. You're $5 in the hole. You'll have the same effects once you regress down to $22 across. You'll win $7 + $7 +$7 = $21 but you'll lose the fourth bet for $22.
You'll be down $1.

While regression betting does reduce the house's take on your money, it does so because you are betting less, not because you have come up with a way to beat the game or reduce the house edge.

Still, 75 percent of the time using the above regression will result in being ahead of the game on a particular shooter. You might even consider changing your attack to stop going up on that $110 inside and instead continue with $22 inside on subsequent shooters.

Not all regressions are as drastic as the $110 and down that I've just explained.
You could, for example, put $44 inside and when it hits once, go to a six dollar 6 and 8. A single hit on $44 inside would see you win $14. Now with just $12 at risk on the 6 and 8, you are ahead $2. Again, such a betting strategy cannot turn a negative into a positive; the house has its damnable edge on each and every bet you make in a random game betting those inside numbers.

Do I enjoy regression betting? No, I do not. As a general rule, once I've gone with a shooter, I'm usually on that shooter come hell or high water. I prefer to take the risk to go for the bigger win by keeping my initial bets at their initial levels. But in math terms, against random rollers, I am giving the house a better whack at me than had I regressed.

Regression betting has its advocates and its opponents. Some people swear by it; some swear at it. In the final analysis, against random shooters, you're betting less; against controlled shooters, you might be getting in for some significant hits before coming down. If you like this as an idea, try it out on your next casino trip and see if you like it as much in reality.

Frank Scoblete's website is: www.goldentouchcraps.com
Frank Scoblete is America's #1 best-selling gaming author and has written 20 books, three video and three audio tapes. Frank is executive director of the Golden Touch Craps dice control & Golden Touch Blackjack seminars.

This article is published in cooperation with www.contentgambling.com --#1 source for gambling content online.

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Many gamblers think that craps as a relatively new game popularized by casinos early in the 20th century. But tracing its roots back through the ages reveals a surprisingly much longer history. In Roman times, soldiers tossed the cubed bones of animals for sport in an effort to pass the long hours of servitude, from which sprang the phrase “roll the bones.” Centuries later, Arabian gamers devised their own interpretation, called “az-zahr,” which eventually spread through medieval Europe as “Hazard.” Over time, the game shifted again, becoming “Crabs” (referring to the lowest possible roll, a pair of ones) when played by the English aristocracy, and “Crabes” in France, until reaching the Americas and finally settling down in early 19th century as “Craps.” 

Although craps is a relatively player friendly game with a low house edge, because of its chaotic appearance gamblers unfamiliar with it often shy away.  But once you get past its deceptive exterior, craps is actually one of the easiest games on the casino floor. 
At its most basic level, craps is comprised of two stages: 

Stage 1: The Come Out Roll. Craps begins with the initial roll of the dice, called the “come out” roll.   With the come out, the shooter throws the dice, determining whether the game will begin or end on that roll.  For example, if the shooter throws a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 the round ends there.  If any other total is rolled—4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10—that number becomes the “point,” and the dealer places a small round “puck” on the table at that number’s location, announcing to all players the point for the round. 

Stage 2:  After the Point.  Once a point number has been established, the game continues with the same shooter throwing until a decision is reached: either the point number is re-rolled, or a seven shows.  Once either of those happens, that round is over, and the game starts all over again.
Prior to the start of the Stage 1 and continuing until the game is over, players can make a variety of different wagers.  Some are betting that the shooter will re-roll the point number—known as the “Do” side of the game—while others are betting that the shooter will roll a seven before the point number is rolled; such players are called “Don’t” bettors. Still others are betting on rolls that are completely unrelated to the point. Let’s take a look at some of the most common bets from both sides of the game.

The Do Side

Pass Line: An even money bet made by placing chips in the area marked “Pass Line.” This wager wins if the first roll of the dice is a 7 or 11, and loses if a 2, 3 or 12 is rolled. If a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 is rolled, that number becomes the “Point.” Once there is a point number, to win the player must repeat that number before a 7 is rolled. If a 7 shows before the point is repeated, the pass line bet loses.

Come Bet: The come bet is a delayed pass line bet made after the point has been established on the come out roll.  The rules are identical to the pass line bet: the come bet wins if a 7 or 11 is rolled and loses on a 2, 3, or 12. Any other number becomes your “come point” and must be repeated before a 7 is rolled.

Taking Odds: The odds bet is a supplemental wager made after a point has been established and is used to support the pass line bet.  This bet is made in multiples (usually up to 2x) of the pass line bet. If the pass line bet wins, the original pass bet will be paid at 1 to 1, while he supplemental wager will be paid at odds of 2-1 if the point was 4 or 10, 3-2 if the point was 5 or 9, and 6-5 if the point was a 6 or 8.
 

The Don’t Side of Craps

Don’t Pass: The opposite of the pass line bet, a don’t pass bet wins if the shooter rolls a 2 or 3 on the come out roll and loses if a 7 or 11 is rolled. If a 12 is rolled, it's a tie and play continues. Once the point has been established, a don’t pass bet wins if the shooter rolls a 7 before repeating the point.

Don’t Come Bet: The opposite of the come bet, the don’t come may be wagered once the point has been established on the come out roll. An initial roll of 7 or 11 loses, 2 or 3 wins, and a 12 is a push. If a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 is rolled after a don't come bet has been made, the dealer will move the wager from the don't come area to the corresponding number.     
      
Laying Odds. As opposed to “taking odds,” when laying odds the player is betting that the 7 will show before the point number is rolled.  This bet is made in multiples of the don’t pass wager and is paid off at odds of 1-2 if the point is 4 or 10, 2-3 if the point is 5 or 9, and 5-6 if the point is 6 or 8.
While craps offers many other betting options such as place bets and proposition bets, until you get an experienced hand at the game it’s best to stick with the basics just described.

Part 2 has a Quick Betting Reference Chart and Strategies.

J. Phillip Vogel's Website is: www.theopn.com
J Phillip Vogel is the Editorial Director for Poker Life magazine.
He is the author of a series of best-selling gambling books collectively titled The Real Deal. His latest book, Internet Gambling: How to Win Big Online Playing Bingo, Poker, Slots, Lotto, Sportsbetting & Much More is available in bookstores worldwide.
This article is published in cooperation with www.contentgambling.com --#1 source for gambling content online.
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